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☆ Germany’s housebuilding sector is in a 'confidence crisis' as the economy struggles
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesGermany's housebuilding sector has gone from bad to worse in recent months. "The housebuilding sector is, I would say, a little bit in a confidence crisis," Dominik von Achten, chairman of German building materials company Heidelberg Materials, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. In January both the current sentiment and expectations for the German residential construction sector fell to all-time lows, according to data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate reading fell to a negative 59 points, while expectations dropped to negative 68.9 points in the month. Habeck pointed to higher interest rates as a key challenge for the economy, explaining that those had led to reduced investments, especially in the construction sector.

Persons: Patrick Pleul, Dominik von Achten, CNBC's, Klaus Wohlrabe, Robert Habeck, Wohlrabe, It's, Achten Organizations: Getty, Heidelberg Materials, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Climate Locations: Germany, Ifo, Heidelberg

Lindner plans to lift self-imposed limits on borrowing and present a supplementary budget next week after a constitutional court ruling wiped billions from the federal budget and forced the government to freeze most new spending commitments. HANDS TIED IN A BOXING MATCHThe crisis has sparked calls for reforming the debt brake. "With the debt brake as it is, we have voluntarily tied our hands behind our backs and are going into a boxing match. A poll by the broadcaster ZDF suggested only a minority of Germans, 35%, supported suspending the debt brake however, compared to 61% wanting it to stay in place. Some 57% wanted the budget shortfall from the court ruling to be covered by spending cuts, 11% favoured tax increases and 23% wanted the state to take on additional debt.

Persons: Christian Lindner, Lindner, hawkish Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Robert Habeck, Habeck, Thomas Gitzel, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Miranda Murray, Rene Wagner, Matthias Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: BERLIN, German Finance, Greens, ZDF, Bank, Thomson Locations: Germany, China, Europe

☆ 'Some positive news': Ifo president on data showing improved German business sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Some positive news': Ifo president on data showing improved German business sentimentClemens Fuest, president of the Ifo institute, discusses German business sentiment after data shows improved morale for the third consecutive month in November.

Persons: Clemens Fuest

Europe's largest economy shrank 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter as inflation eroded people's willingness to spend, Germany's statistics office confirmed Friday. The downbeat figures come as the country's budget crisis raises the possibility of deep spending cuts next year. A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government to put off a final vote on next year's spending plan. The court said the move violated rules in the constitution that limit new borrowing to 0.35% of annual economic output. He termed the uptick in the Ifo survey of business managers as “a bottoming out” rather than a rebound.

Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, quarrelsome, Christian Lindner, ”, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Finance, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Russia, Ukraine

☆ German housebuilding is collapsing — and could drag the economy down with it
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.

Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, —, Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg

☆ German structural reforms 'are a must,' IMF chief insists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks to the media following talks at the Chancellery on November 29, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. "If you look at the policy decisions Germany is taking, they are around stimulating structural change. And of course, like any other country, structural reforms are a must in this more uncertain world with low gross growth prospects," Georgieva said Wednesday. The auto industry should be a particular focus for reform in Germany if the country wants to increase productivity, according to Georgieva. "For Germany, this is very visible in the need to restructure the automobile sector for this economy of tomorrow," she said.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Carsten Koall, CNBC's Joumanna, Georgieva, Hans, Werner Sinn, Joachim Nagel Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Getty, Ifo Institute, CNBC Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe, Italy, Ukraine

☆ Germany's political landscape is shifting, with the far-right AfD party ahead in the polls
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The AFD party leadership (front row) holds a banner reading OUR LAND FIRST! during a protest against the rising cost of living in a demonstration organized by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party on October 8, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. The Christian Democratic Union party (CDU), formerly led by chancellor of 16 years, Angela Merkel, currently polls the highest. "First of all you need a political will to stop it and we don't see this will among the other parties. "There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right," Sinn said, referring to the popularity of the AfD.

Persons: Omer Messinger, Angela Merkel, Robert Lambrou, Lambrou, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Manfred Knof, Hans, Werner Sinn, Sinn Organizations: Getty, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, CDU, CNBC, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, Handelsblatt Locations: Germany, Berlin, Hesse, Frankfurt, Bavaria, Munich, Sonneberg, Thuringia, Europe

☆ German GDP expected to contract by 0.6% this year, economic institutes say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Business sentiment has recently deteriorated again and overall, the indicators suggest that production fell noticeably in the third quarter of 2023, the economic institutes said. GDP is expected to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter, following stagnation in the second quarter. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. In the following years, a decreasing potential growth rate due to the shrinking labour force will become more and more apparent, the economic institutes said. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halley Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Oliver Holtemoeller, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Ifo Institute, Halley Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

Growth of 0.3% had been expected in the institutes' spring forecasts. The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts are to be presented in Berlin on Thursday. The economics ministry usually updates its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Annegret, Christian Kraemer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Rachel Armstrong, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ifo Institute, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany

☆ German business sentiment worsens in September - Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BERLIN, Sept 25 (Reuters) - German business morale deteriorated in September, falling for the fifth month in a row, a survey showed on Monday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 85.7 versus a forecast of 85.2, according to analysts polled by Reuters. "The German economy is treading water," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. Companies were less satisfied than in the previous month with their current business situation. Reporting by Friederike Heine and Maria Martinez, Editing by Miranda MurrayOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray Organizations: Reuters, Companies, Thomson

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Even high yields couldn’t stop tech
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, the European Commission revised its growth forecast for the European Union down from 1% to 0.8%. Only European economy to contractGermany is likely the only major European economy to contract this year, according to fresh forecasts by the European Commission. The commission predicts Germany's economy to shrink 0.4% this year; the International Monetary Fund puts that figure at 0.3%.

Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, it'd, Dimon, Cristiano Amon, Hans, Werner Sinn, Tesla Morgan Stanley's, Adam Jonas, Tesla, Jonas Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Commission, European Union, JPMorgan, Qualcomm Qualcomm, Apple, UBS, European Commission, International Monetary Fund Locations: European, U.S, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets can’t catch a break from rate fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The donations were meant 'to weed out anti crypto dems for pro crypto dems and anti crypto repubs for pro crypto repubs," Salame said in a private message, according to a court document. It's the first time a Chinese president has missed the summit, a sign of how geopolitics have shifted. But Leon Cooperman, the chair and CEO of the Omega Family Office, told CNBC he doesn't think markets will hit a new high for a long time.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, CNBC's David Faber, Instacart, Goldman, Solomon, FTX's Salame, Ryan Salame, Salame, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Leon Cooperman Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, ifo Institute, Alameda Research, Omega Locations: Germany, Alameda, India

☆ Germany is the 'sick man of Europe' — and it's causing a shift to the right, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The "sick man of Europe" moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region's largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. It "has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that," he said. Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). Plunge in business sentimentSinn said investor doubts about the feasibility of Germany's sustainability goals also play into the description of the country as the "sick man of Europe." Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a "plunge" in business sentiment, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in the note.

Persons: Hans, Werner Sinn, Sinn, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Thomas Lohnes, Berenberg, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, Getty, Ambrosetti, Berenberg Locations: Germany, Europe, Italy, Ukraine, Frankfurt, Saudi Arabia

☆ Where in the World Are People Back in the Office?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In London, a politician wrote not-so-subtle notes to remote workers last year, hoping to persuade them to spend more time in the office: “Sorry you were out when I visited,” Jacob Rees-Mogg, then a government minister, recalled writing in messages left on the desks of Cabinet Office staff members who were working from home. When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in 2020, many industries across the world shifted to remote or hybrid work. It was an immense experiment that yielded different results for different cities — with long-term standoffs between executives and workers in some cases, and a sweeping return to the office in others. Whether a person is more likely to do work at a cubicle in a big office tower or on the living room couch now depends on where in the world those cubicles and couches are. Many Asian countries have lower levels of remote work than countries in Europe and North America.

Persons: ” Jacob Rees, Mogg, Jem Kim, videoconference, Autónomo, México Organizations: Sequoia, Stanford, Instituto, Ifo Institute Locations: London, Seoul, San Mateo, Calif, Europe, North America, Britain, Canada, United States

☆ Europe stocks open mixed as investors eye global data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European stock markets were mixed at the open on Friday, as investors await a key U.S. jobs report. The regional Stoxx 600 index opened 0.06% lower, with sectors spread between losses and gains. Oil and gas stocks moved 1.6% higher after analysts raised oil price forecasts for the first time in four months in a Reuters poll released Thursday. Autos stocks fell 1.26%, however, after a survey from Germany's ifo Institute flagged a deterioration in sentiment among automakers; almost half said a lack of orders was impeding production.

Organizations: ifo Locations: U.S

☆ Germany is the sick man of Europe, Ifo institute says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGermany is the sick man of Europe, Ifo institute saysHans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus of the Ifo institute, discusses the German economy and explains how the energy transition must be managed to support the country's manufacturing sector.

Persons: Hans, Werner Sinn Locations: Europe

The Ifo institute said on Friday that its business climate index stood at 85.7, down from 87.4 in July. Reuters Graphics"The German economy is not out of the woods yet," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. The economy then posted zero growth in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, separate data from the statistics office showed on Friday. The Ifo survey showed sentiment among German managers had become more pessimistic across all sectors in August. The Ifo survey chimed with flash PMI data released on Wednesday, which showed that German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August.

Persons: Annegret, Clemens Fuest, Christian Lindner, Klaus Wohlrabe, Claus Niegsch, Niegsch, Andrew Kenningham, Carsten Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Mark Potter, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, . Finance, DZ Bank, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BERLIN, Europe

☆ Why some are calling the German economy 'the sick man of Europe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.

Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, ”, Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Although prompted by a deepening property sector bust and worrying economic activity undershoot, China's latest widely expected interest rate cut on Monday was surprisingly small - underscoring concerns that official efforts to shore up the economic malaise are still just piecemeal. The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year lending rate by only 10 basis points to 3.45% - less than the 15bp cut forecast - and it left five-year rates unchanged. UBS became the latest global bank to slash China's annual economic growth forecast for this year - down to 4.8% from 5.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered below last week's highs on Monday, however, and Wall St stock futures were firmer ahead of the open.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan There's, China's, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, disinflation, Germany's, Crest Nicholson, Mike Dolan, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, People's Bank of, Stock Connect, HK, UBS, Treasury, Federal, Jackson, Wall St, BRICS Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, People's Bank of China, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India, Ukraine, Wall, Johannesburg

☆ Germany’s China policy makes life easier for its companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Back then one idea was to aggressively push for companies to disclose details of their China business, and even to stress-test their exposure, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The compromise likely stems from the realisation that China is simply too strategic to quit quickly without inflicting significant pain. A survey conducted by the ifo Institute showed that half of German firms in the manufacturing sector currently depend on important intermediate inputs from China. Even so, executives will be relieved they can for the most part undertake China de-risking at their own pace. Follow @ywchen1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSGermany’s first China strategy, published on July 13, outlined possible responses to an "increasingly assertive" Beijing, such as adjusting export controls and outbound investment restrictions.

Persons: Martin, Thomas Schäfer, Brudermüller, “, Li Qiang, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, BASF, Volkswagen, Greens, Reuters Breakingviews, BASF ”, ifo, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Union, VW, European Union, Thomson Locations: China, Berlin, People’s Republic, Brussels, Washington, Taiwan, Republic, Germany, Beijing

☆ Germany’s China policy caps pain for its companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Back then one idea was to aggressively push for companies to disclose details of their China business, and even to stress-test their exposure, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The compromise likely stems from the realisation that China is simply too strategic to quit quickly without inflicting significant pain. The People’s Republic is also Volkswagen's largest market, accounting for around 40% of Volkswagen's global unit sales in 2022. Even so, executives will be relieved they can for the most part undertake China de-risking at their own pace. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @ywchen1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSGermany’s first China strategy, published on July 13, outlined possible responses to an "increasingly assertive" Beijing, such as adjusting export controls and outbound investment restrictions.

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ German recession will be sharper than expected: Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, June 21 (Reuters) - The German economy will contract more than previously expected this year as sticky inflation takes its toll on private consumption, the Ifo Institute said on Wednesday while presenting its forecasts. "The German economy is only very slowly working its way out of the recession," Ifo's head of economic forecasts, Timo Wollmershaeuser, said. German gross domestic product is expected to fall by 0.4% this year, more than the 0.1% forecast by the Ifo Institute in March. Ifo forecasts eurozone GDP will expand by 0.6% this year and the U.S. by 0.9%. Regarding core inflation, the Ifo Institute forecasts it will increase to 6% this year from 4.9% in the previous year, before falling to 3% in 2024.

Persons: Timo Wollmershaeuser, Wollmershaeuser, Maria Martinez, Matthias Williams, Alex Richardson Organizations: Ifo, Ifo Institute, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany

The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts, to be presented in Berlin on Wednesday, expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The five economic institutes which prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts predict GDP growth in Germany of 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in the autumn, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. The economics ministry will update its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts this spring. The economic institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

☆ European stocks rebound as banking jitters ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

European banks (.SX7P) rose 0.9% after shedding 3.8% on Friday, when Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) sparked a rout in the sector. "Many investors still don't want to touch the banking sector for fears there is more distress to come," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. "Yet for every bleak situation, there is always someone who sees an opportunity to make money, hence why we're seeing a rise in the share price of many European banks today." European stocks are looking to end the first quarter of the year with gains, buoyed by signs of economic resilience and hopes that central banks are near the end of their tightening cycles. However, European banks are set to end the quarter nearly flat amid the banking sector turmoil.

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